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Preview : What will summer 2021 be like for tourism in Europe?

EU ECO-TANDEM PROGRAMME | May 20, 2021

Tourism is one of the sectors that have suffered most from the travel restrictions due to Covid-19 over the past year. With the launch of the vaccination campaign in Europe, tourism businesses and travellers are now eager to know what the tourism outlook is for summer 2021.


Thanks to data provided by our project partner ENIT - Italian national Tourism Board, the EU ECO-TANDEM team is able to provide a small preview.


An international comparison: the current scenario


Although losses are not expected to be as heavy as in 2020, no country in Europe will escape the decimation of its tourism sector in 2021. The overall European scenario suggests a decrease of -49% for 2021 compared to the results of 2019.

Source: ENIT Statistics Department on Oxford Economics, March 2021

Comparing the main competitors, the positioning shows Croatia and Portugal as the worse performances. Turkey, Spain and Italy in a medium position, while the situation seems to be better in Greece and France.
 
Which cities will experience the greatest tourist flow.

For 2021, the ranking of the main international cities destinations of tourist flows will see at the top Marseille (-36%), Bergamo (-44%), Bordeaux (-46%), Lyon (-48%), Turin (-49%), Valencia and Bologna (both -50%). The “Big” cities will still suffer a lot in the short term: London -73%, Barcelona (-68%), Frankfurt -66%, Berlin -64%, Florence -58%, Rome -55%. Only in 2024, many of the biggest one will finally reach the top, getting positive variations: Athens +9%, Milan +7%, Berlin +2%.

Source:ENIT Statistics Department on Oxford Economics, March 2021

Source:ENIT Statistics Department on Oxford Economics, March 2021

Forecasts on summer 2021


According to UNWTO, international tourist arrivals decreased by 85% compared to the same period in 2019. This represented a loss of some 260 million international arrivals when compared to pre-pandemic levels, adding to the pressure on some southern European countries, which rely heavy on tourism.



Looking ahead, UNWTO has outlined two scenarios for summer 2021, which consider a possible rebound in international travel in the second half of the year. These are based on a number of factors, most notably a major lifting of travel restrictions, the success of vaccination programmes or the introduction of harmonized protocols such as the Digital Green Certificate, planned by the European Commission:


•      the first scenario points to a rebound in July, which would result in a 66% increase in international arrivals for the year 2021 compared to the historic lows of 2020. In this case, arrivals would still be 55% below the levels recorded in 2019;

•      the second scenario considers a potential rebound in September, leading to a 22% increase in arrivals compared to last year. Still, this would be 67% below the levels of 2019.

 

Considering all the challenges, the world and the EU are facing, the hope is to have the right conditions and timing to prepare for the safe restart of travel and tourism in Europe, in order to be ready for the summer season 2021!


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